000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180838 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0830 UTC Fri Oct 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 9.9N 127.1W at 18/0900 UTC moving W at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 122W and 130W. Octave is forecast to linger over the general vicinity the next several days. The current forecast has Octave remaining a tropical storm for the next day or so before weakening to a tropical depression Sat night. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W, N of 02N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 80W and 83W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 15N96W to low pres near 15N113W to 11N122W. It resumes west of Octave near 10N130W to 10N 140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 95W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 10N to 15N between 114W and 118W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 10N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh southwesterly monsoonal flow will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec zone and vicinity waters through Sat. A set of large NW-N swell propagating across the Baja California Norte offshore waters will spread SE, reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the offshore zones of Baja California Norte through the weekend. Moderate to fresh NW winds will develop in the northern and central Gulf of California Sun night through Tue. Fresh to near gale force northerly flow will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds will prevail across the offshore waters, briefly freshening this weekend. SW swell will propagate into the waters between the Galapagos and Colombia tonight, then spread northward across the remainder of the forecast waters through the weekend. Seas will start to subside early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about Tropical Storm Octave A 1010 mb low pressure is embedded in the monsoon trough near 15N113W. This low is forecast to drift NE, eventually opening up into a trough this weekend. A large set of NW swell is propagating into the northern waters with seas above 8 ft NW of a line from 30N116W to 21N140W. An overnight altimeter pass indicates seas near 13 ft near 29N133W. This swell will continue to propagate SE, with seas peaking around 14 ft N of 24N between 118W and 128W tonight into Sat, aided by fresh to strong winds which have spread southward from off the southern California coast. The edge of seas of 8 ft or greater will reach to 10N and W of 110W by Sat night into Sun. This swell will gradually decay early next week. Otherwise, a ridge extends across the waters N of 20N. Overnight scatterometer data indicates mainly moderate to fresh winds N of 20N and gentle to moderate trades between the monsoon trough and 20N. Outside the NW swell, seas are in the 5-7 ft range. $$ AL