000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162113 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Oct 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The disturbance formerly known as Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E moved inland earlier today and is no longer expected to become a tropical cyclone. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 16N94W to 13N87W to 08N94W to 10N98W to 16N94W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 14N to 20N between 97W and 107W. This convection is resulting in heavy rainfall from SW Guatemala border westward across Mexico to near Cabo Corrientes which will persist through the remainder of the week. This rainfall could produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 118W, from 04N to 17N, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Panama near 09N80W to across Costa Rica to along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua to El Salvador, Guatemala and Mexico to 1007 mb low pressure near 16.5N96.W to 11N102W to 11N120W to 1012 mb low pressure near 11.5N125.5W to 13N135W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 78W and 87W, from 05N to 12N between 98W and 110W, and also from 07N to 10N between 127W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about heavy rainfall associated with former Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E. Also associated with this system, remnant moderate to fresh SW monsoonal flow and seas of 8-9 ft will persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec zone through the end of the week Elsewhere, a ridge will build through the week across the Baja California offshore waters producing mainly a moderate NW to N wind flow. A set of large NW swell will propagate into the Baja California Norte offshore waters by the end of the week with seas of 8-12 ft, spreading SE and reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Sat night and continuing through Sun night. This swell will gradually decay early next week. Looking ahead, the pressure gradient across the Gulf of California region will tighten early next week. This will allow NW flow to freshen, locally strong in the northern and central Gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please read the Special Features section for more details about heavy rainfall associated with former Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E. Also associated with this system, remnant moderate to fresh SW monsoonal flow and larger seas W of 90W will diminish and subside through Thu. Otherwise and elsewhere, mainly moderate SW-W winds will prevail along with 4-7 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates mainly the waters N of 19N W of 120W. Scatterometer data indicates mainly gentle to moderate trades across this area under the ridge. Just to the S of the ridge, a trough is over the far W central waters along 137W between 11N to 19N. Associated scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 137W and 140W. This trough will drift westward through Thu with an area of fresh to strong trades and seas of 8-9 ft, gradually pushing W of 140W through Thu night. A weak 1012 mb low pressure area is embedded in the monsoon trough near 11.5N125.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm in the SE quadrant of the low. An area of fresh to locally strong winds and seas to 8 ft is within about 60 nm NW quadrant of the low center. This low is forecast to linger in the same general area through the week with some increase in winds and seas in the vicinity. A cold front will approach near 30N140W tonight. The front will usher in a set of long period NW swell, with seas of 8 to 10 ft affecting the waters N of 28N W of 130W by Thu morning. This swell will continue to propagate SE-S through the end of the week, with seas of 8 ft or greater likely covering the waters N of 20N W of 110W, and from 10N to 20N W of 115W by Sat. The swell will slowly decay from NW to SE by the end of the upcoming weekend and into early next week. $$ Lewitsky