000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161541 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1444 UTC Wed Oct 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E is centered near 16.2N 96.2W at 16/1500 UTC moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The center of the disturbance has moved inland this morning over the state of Oaxaca in Mexico. However, this tropical system has some chance of becoming a tropical storm if the center can re-form along the coast later today. On the official forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move farther inland over southeastern Mexico during the next several hours. Latest satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to isolated strong convection over forecast waters N of 14N between 96W and 100W. A large cluster of moderate to strong convection persists to the W of the disturbance and is currently affecting the offshore forecast waters and adjacent land areas between Guerrero and Colima. This feature is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches along the southwest coast of Mexico from Chiapas to Jalisco, and 2 to 4 inches over southern Guatemala. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible in Mexico. Rainfall in both Guatemala and Mexico could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 116W, from 04N to 18N, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 15.5N95W to 11N110W to 1009 mb low pressure near 12.5N126W to 13N134W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N E of 81W, including the Gulf of Panama. Similar convection is seen from 10N to 14N between 90W and 94W, from 09N to 11N between 98W and 114W, and from 09N to 10N between 126W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Central American Gyre and Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E. Elsewhere, a ridge will build through the week across the Baja California offshore waters producing mainly a moderate NW to N wind flow. A set of large NW swell will propagate into the Baja California Norte offshore waters by the end of the week with seas of 8-12 ft, spreading SE and reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Sat night and continuing through Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Central American Gyre and Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E. Locally heavy rainfall will persist over southern Guatemala today. Seas of 8 to 9 ft currently affecting the offshore forecast waters from the Gulf of Papagayo to the coast of Guatemala will gradually subside from E to W tonight into Thu as the tropical disturbance moves farther inland Mexico. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates mainly the waters N of 18N W of 115W. Latest scatterometer data provided observations of gentle to moderate winds under the influence of the ridge, with the exception of fresh to strong NE-E winds with seas to 9 ft near the northern end of a surface trough that extends from 16N135W to 10N135W. This trough and associated marine conditions will move westward crossing 140W this evening or tonight. A weak 1009 mb low pressure area is embedded in the monsoon trough near 12.5N126W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 122W and 126W. An area of fresh to locally strong winds and seas to 8 ft is within about 60 nm NW quadrant of the low center. This low is forecast to linger in the same general area through the week with some increase in winds and seas in the vicinity. A cold front will approach near 30N140W tonight. The front will usher in a set of long period NW swell, with seas of 8 to 10 ft affecting the waters N of 28N W of 130W by Thu morning. This swell will continue to propagate SE-S through the end of the week, with seas of 8 ft or greater likely covering the waters N of 20N W of 110W, and from 10N to 20N W of 115W by Sat. The swell will slowly decay from NW to SE by the end of the upcoming weekend. $$ GR