000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160302 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Oct 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E is centered near 13.7N 93.4W at 16/0300 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seventeen-E is forecast to move to 14.6N 94.8W Wed morning as a tropical storm, then inland to 16.2N 96.2W Wed evening. This system is embedded within the larger circulation of a Central American Gyre. A large area of scattered convection associated with this system is noted over the forecast waters N of 07N between 88W and 97W. Heavy rainfall currently occurring across Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala is forecast to spread westward across southern Mexico by Wed. These rains could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W, from 03N to 16N, moving W at around 5-10 kt. Associated convection is described below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 117W, from 04N to 18N, moving W at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09N80W to low pressure near 13.5N93W to 11N100W to 13N108W to 11N115W to 13N122W to low pressure near 12N126W to low pressure near 15N135W to 14N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between 78W and 83W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is N of 11N between 97W and 102W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 106W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Central American Gyre and Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E. Elsewhere, a ridge will build through the week across the Baja California offshore waters producing mainly a moderate NW to N wind flow. A set of large NW swell will propagate into the Baja California Norte offshore waters by the end of the week with seas of 8-12 ft, spreading SE and reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Sat night and continuing through Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Central American Gyre and Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad and weak ridge is across the waters N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W. Earlier scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate trades, along with seas of 4-7 ft as indicated by altimeter data. A weak 1010 mb low pressure area is embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N126W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm of the low center, except within 90 nm in the SW quadrant. An area of fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft are within 90 nm of the low center. This low is forecast to linger in the same general area through the week with similar winds and seas in the vicinity. Another weak 1010 mb low pressure area is embedded in the monsoon trough near 15N134W. Scattered moderate to strong convection has developed within 240 nm in the N quadrant of the low. Currently winds are 20 kt or less and seas are less than 8 ft. The low is forecast to open up into a trough during the next 24 hours while approaching 140W. Even so, the pressure gradient between the remnant trough and the broad ridging to the N is forecast to tighten allowing for an area of seas to 8 ft through Thu before shifting W of 140W. A cold front will approach to near 30N140W Wed into Wed night, followed by a set of long period NW swell. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will affect the waters N of 28N W of 130W by Thu morning. This swell event will continue to propagate SE-S through the end of the week, with seas of 8 ft or greater likely covering the waters N of 20N W of 110W, and from 10N to 20N W of 115W by Sat. The swell will slowly decay from NW to SE by the end of the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky