000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152115 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Oct 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure of 1007 mb located near 13N92W is embedded within the larger circulation of a Central American Gyre. A large area of convection associated with this system is noted over the forecast waters N of 08N between 87W and 102W. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form tonight or on Wed while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 kt near the coast of southeastern Mexico. Regardless of development, winds of fresh to near gale force, building seas, and heavy rainfall currently occurring across Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala is forecast to spread westward across southern Mexico by Wed. These rains could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Please see latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W, from 03N to 16N, moving W at around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 106W and 109W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 115W, from 04N to 18N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 114W and 117W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09N80W to 13N88W to low pressure near 13N92W to 13N108W to 12N116W to low pressure near 13N125W to low pressure near 14N134W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 10N to 13N between 110W and 114W, and also from 11N to 13N between 117W and 122W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N of the monsoon trough between 130W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Central American Gyre, and embedded low pressure near 13N92W. Elsewhere, a ridge will build through the week across the Baja California offshore waters producing mainly a moderate NW to N wind flow. A set of large NW swell will propagate into the Baja California Norte offshore waters by the end of the week with seas of 8-12 ft, spreading SE and reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Sat night and continuing through Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Central American Gyre, and embedded area of low pressure near 13N92W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak 1010 mb low pressure area is embedded in the monsoon trough near 13N125W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 122W and 130W. An area of fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are within 90 nm of the low center. This low is forecast to linger in the same general area through the week with similar winds and seas in the vicinity. Otherwise, a broad and weak ridge is across the waters N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W. Recent scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate trades, along with seas of 4-7 ft as indicated by altimeter data. A cold front will approach to near 30N140W by mid week, followed by a set of long period NW swell. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will affect the waters N of 28N W of 130W by Thu morning. This swell event will continue to propagate SE-S through the end of the week, with seas of 8 ft or greater likely covering the waters N of 20N W of 110W, and from 10N to 20N W of 115W by Sat. The swell will slowly decay from NW to SE by the end of the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky