000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151539 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1447 UTC Tue Oct 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure of 1007 mb located near 12.5N92W is embedded within the larger circulation of a Central American Gyre. A large area of convection associated with this system is found over forecast waters N of 10N between 86W and 100W. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 kt near the coast of southeastern Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall currently occurring across Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador is forecast to spread westward over Guatemala today, and across southern Mexico by Wednesday. These rains could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Interests in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Please see latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details on the potential for tropical cyclogenesis of the low. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W, from 04N to 16N, moving W at around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 100W and 102W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 113W, from 05N to 17N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 110W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 07N86W to 1007 mb low pressure near 12.5N92W to 12N102W to 14N113W to 1009 mb low pressure near 12N125.5W to 10N140W. In addition to convection associated with the lows and tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 06N E of 79W to the coast of Colombia. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Central American Gyre, and embedded area of low pressure near 12.5N92W. Elsewhere, a ridge will build through the week across the Baja California offshore waters producing mainly a moderate NW to N wind flow. A set of large NW swell will propagate into the Baja California Norte offshore waters by the end of the week with seas of 8-12 ft, spreading SE and reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Central American Gyre, and embedded area of low pressure near 12.5N92W. This system is currently producing fresh to strong winds, seas of 8 to 12 ft, and heavy rainfall over the offshore waters from the Gulf of Papagayo westward. The low will continue to shift west-northwestward with the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 24-36 hours. The heavy rainfall and enhanced winds and seas will continue across these waters through midweek. Afterwards, with the system moving further from the area, winds and seas will decrease. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak low pressure area is embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N125.5W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 120W and 130W. An area of fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft is forecast to persist within about 90 nm of the center over the next couple of days. Some tropical cyclone development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves little. Otherwise, a broad and weak ridge is across the waters N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W. Recent scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate trades, along with seas of 4-7 ft as indicated by altimeter data. A new cold front will approach to near 30N140W by mid week, followed by a set of long period NW swell. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will affect the waters N of 28N W of 130W by Thu morning. This swell event will continue to propagate SE-S through the end of the week, with seas of 8 ft or greater likely covering the waters N of 20N W of 110W, and from 10N to 20N W of 115W by Sat. $$ GR