803 AXPZ20 KNHC 150830 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0830 UTC Tue Oct 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure of 1007 mb located near 12N91W is embedded within the larger circulation of a Central American Gyre. This low will move west- northwestward the next couple of days with the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. A large area of convection associated to the Central American Gyre is found over forecast waters N of 07N between 83W and 100W. Heavy rainfall associated to this feature is also currently occurring across Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador. The heavy rainfall associated to these features are forecast to spread westward over Guatemala today, and across southern Mexico by Wednesday. These rains could cause life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, especially areas of mountainous terrain. Please see latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details on the potential for tropical cyclogenesis of the low. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W, N of 03N, moving W at around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 100W and 102W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 112W, from 05N to 17N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 110W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to low pressure near 12N91W to 10N98W to 14N111W to 13N120W to low pressure near 13N134W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection N of 07N between 83W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection from 10N to 15N between 115W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Central American Gyre, and embedded area of low pressure near 12N91W. Elsewhere, a ridge will build through the week across the Baja California offshore waters producing mainly a moderate NW to N wind flow. A set of large NW swell will propagate into the Baja California Norte offshore waters by the end of the week with seas of 8-12 ft, spreading SE and reaching 110W by Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Central American Gyre, and embedded area of low pressure near 12N91W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak low pressure area is embedded in the monsoon trough near 13N135W, with a small area of fresh winds and seas to 8 ft on the E side. This low will linger the next few days with associated winds and seas diminishing. Otherwise, a broad and weak ridge is across the waters N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. Recent scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate trades, along with seas of 4-7 ft as indicated by altimeter data. A new cold front will approach to near 30N140W by mid week, followed by a set of long period NW swell. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will affect the waters N of 28N W of 130W by Thu morning. This swell event will continue to propagate SE-S through the end of the week, with seas of 8 ft or greater likely covering the waters N of 20N W of 115W, and from 10N to 20N W of 120W by Fri night. $$ AL