000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150150 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Oct 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure of 1007 mb located near 11.5N90W or a couple hundred miles S of the coast of El Salvador will bring increasing winds and seas to the offshore waters from the Gulf of Papagayo westward, along with the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 480 nm SW quadrant, and from 11N to 15N between 90W and 98W. Regardless of Tropical development, heavy rainfall currently occurring across Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras is forecast to spread westward over El Salvador and Guatemala tonight and Tuesday, and into southern Mexico by Wednesday. These rains could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Please see latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W, N of 03N, moving W at around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 100W and 102W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 111W/112W, from 05N to 17N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 110W and 113W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to low pressure near 11.5N90W to 10N100W to 14N111W to 12N120W to low pressure near 11N135W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 07N to 11N between 80W and 87W, from 10N to 15N between 105W and 108W, within 60-120 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 113W and 130W, and also within 150 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the area of low pressure near 11.5N90W. Another low is in the central Gulf of California near 27N110.5W. This low will continue to move N-NE and will dissipate later tonight. Heavy rainfall associated with this system is likely to continue across portions of Baja California Sur, southern Sonora, and northern Sinaloa through tonight. A ridge will build through the week across the Baja California offshore waters producing mainly a moderate NW to N wind flow. A set of large NW swell will propagate into the Baja California Norte offshore waters by the end of the week with seas of 8-12 ft, spreading SE and reaching 110W by Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the area of low pressure near 11.5N90W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak low pressure area was embedded in the monsoon trough near 11N135W with a small area of fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft on the SE side. This low will linger the next few days with associated winds and seas diminishing. Otherwise, a broad and weak ridge is across the waters N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. Recent scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate trades, along with seas of 4-7 ft as indicated by altimeter data. A new cold front will approach to near 30N140W by mid week, followed by a set of long period NW swell. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will affect the waters N of 28N W of 130W by Thu morning. This swell event will continue to propagate SE-S through the end of the week, with seas of 8 ft or greater likely covering the waters N of 20N W of 115W, and from 10N to 20N W of 120W by Fri night. $$ Lewitsky