000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142009 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Oct 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure of 1007 mb located near 11.5N89W or a couple hundred miles S of the coast of El Salvador will bring increasing winds and seas to the offshore waters from the Gulf of Papagayo westward, along with the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 85W and 95W. Abundant moisture will persist over Central America early this week, with the potential of locally heavy rain over the coastal waters and the westward side of the mountains. Please see latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W, N of 04N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 96W and 103W, and from 11N to 14N between 109W and 111W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 110W/111W, from 04N to 17N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 110W and 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09N78W to low pressure near 11.5N89W to 10N96W to 14N110W to 12N120W to 13N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 80W and 85W, within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 113W and 129W, from 10N to 17N between 130W and 135W, and also within 240 nm SE of the monsoon trough between 135W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the area of low pressure near 11.5N89W. Another low in the central Gulf of California will continue N-NE and will dissipate tonight. Heavy rainfall associated with this system is likely to continue across portions of Baja California Sur, southern Sonora, and northern Sinaloa through tonight. A ridge will build through the week across the Baja California offshore waters producing mainly a moderate NW to N wind flow. A set of large NW swell will propagate into the Baja California Norte offshore waters by the end of the week with seas of 8-12 ft, spreading SE and reaching 110W by Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the area of low pressure near 11.5N89W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnants of a cold front extend from 28N130W to 27N140W with scattered showers in the vicinity. This boundary will completely dissipate tonight into Tue. A weak low pressure area was embedded in the monsoon trough near 12.5N134W with a small area of fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft on the SE side. This low will linger the next few days with associated winds and seas diminishing. Otherwise, a broad and weak ridge is across the waters N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. Recent scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate trades, along with seas of 4-7 ft as indicated by altimeter data. A new cold front will approach to near 30N140W by mid week, followed by a set of long period NW swell. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will affect the waters N of 28N W of 130W by Thu morning. This swell event will continue to propagate SE-S through the end of the week, with seas of 8 ft or greater likely covering the waters N of 20N W of 115W, and from 10N to 20N W of 120W by Fri night. $$ Lewitsky