443 AXPZ20 KNHC 141534 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1417 UTC Mon Oct 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An area of low pressure centered near 11N88W, or a few hundred miles SE of the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Recent satellite imagery indicates a cluster of moderate to strong convection covering the waters from 08N to 12N between 86W and 90W. Gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 kt near or just offshore the coast of Mexico. By late this week, the proximity to land could inhibit further development. Currently, the Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high probability of tropical cyclogenesis within the next 5 days. Please see latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W, N of 04N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 97W and 100W, and from 06N to 09N between 97W and 101W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 110W, from 06N to 16N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 11N to 15N between 109W and 113W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a low pres near 11N88W to 11N99W to 10N102W to 15N110W to 12N125W to 13N132W to 10N140W. In addition to convection associated with the low pres and tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 15N between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Baja California Sur, the Gulf of California, and western Mexico are associated with an elongated area of low pressure located near 22N112.5W. Upper-level winds have increased over the system, and the low has moved over cooler waters. Therefore, tropical cyclone development is no longer anticipated. The low pres will move N-NE toward the Gulf of California and dissipate later today or tonight. Heavy rainfall associated with this system is likely to continue across portions of Baja California Sur, southern Sonora, and northern Sinaloa through today. Fresh southerly winds are expected across the southern part of the Gulf of California today, with mainly moderate to fresh winds elsewhere across the Gulf. Otherwise, a ridge will build through the week across the Baja California offshore waters producing mainly a moderate NW to N wind flow. A set of large NW swell will propagate into the Baja California Norte offshore waters by the end of the week, with seas building to up to 8-12 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Low pressure of 1008 mb located near 11N88W will move west- northwestward with the potential of tropical cyclone formation by midweek. Please see Special Features section above for more information on this low. Expect increasing winds and seas across the offshore waters from western Costa Rica to Guatemala in association with this low. Abundant moisture will persist over Central America early this week, with the potential of locally heavy rain over the coastal waters and the westward side of the mountains. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 20N W of 120W and supports mainly moderate trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft. A weak low pressure is along the monsoon trough near 12N134W. moderate to fresh winds are noted within about 90 nm on the NW quadrant of the center. This system will drift northward and dissipate over the next couple of days. A stronger cold front will approach to near 30N140W by mid week, followed by a set of long period NW swell. Seas of 8 to 9 ft will affect the waters N of 28N W of 130W by Thu morning. This swell event will continue to propagate SE-S through the end of the week with seas of 8 ft or greater likely covering the waters N of 20N W of 115W, and from 10N to 20N W of 120W by Fri night. $$ GR