000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140830 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0830 UTC Mon Oct 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure centered near 10.5N90W, or a few hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are favorable for tropical development of this low, and tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves west- northwestward at about 10 mph near or just offshore the coast of Mexico. There is currently a medium chance for tropical cyclogenesis within the next 48 hours, and a high probability of tropical cyclogenesis within the next 5 days. Please see latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W, N of 04N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection was noted from 11N to 14N between 95W and 99W, and from 06N to 09N between 96W and 103W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 110W, from 06N to 18N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 109W and 111W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to low pres near 10.5N90W to 09N98W to 12N104W. It then resumes from 13N114W to 13N131W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 10N between 81W and 86W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 08N between 90W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 10N to 12N between 114W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An area of low pressure located near 22.5N112W will move N-NE with heavy rainfall across portions of Baja California Sur, southern Sonora, and northern Sinaloa today. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast to persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue. Low pressure centered near 10.5N90W will move into the offshore waters S of Mexico with the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Regardless of development, increasing winds and seas can be expected during the week. A set of large NW swell will propagate into the Baja California Norte offshore waters by the end of the week. Otherwise, weak ridging will build through the week across the Baja California offshore waters. A set of large NW swell will propagate into the Baja California Norte offshore waters by the end of the week, with seas building to up to 8-12 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Low pressure near 10.5N90W will move west- northwestward with the potential of tropical cyclone formation by midweek. Please see Special Features section above for more information on this low. Expect increasing winds and seas across the offshore waters from western Costa Rica to Guatemala in association with this low. Abundant moisture will persist over Central America early this week, with the potential of locally heavy rain over the coastal waters and the westward side of the mountains. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A dissipating cold front in the NW part of the forecast area extends from 30N129W to 23N140W. The front is forecast to dissipate today. S of the front, a weak and broad ridge supports mainly moderate trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft. A stronger cold front will approach to near 30N140W by mid week, followed by a set of long period NW swell. Seas of 8 to 9 ft will propagate across the waters N of 28N W of 130W by Thu morning. This swell will continue propagating SE-S through the end of the week with seas of 8 ft or greater likely covering the waters N of 10N and W of 110W by Fri night. $$ AL