000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140214
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Oct 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W/98W, from 04N to 15N,
moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 06N to 14N between 94W and 99W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 109W, from 06N to 18N, 
moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 106W and 109W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica to the coast near
11N86W to low pressure near 11N93W to 15N104W, then resumes from
15N115W to 13N130W to low pressure near 12N137W to 11N140W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to
10N to the E of 94W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

An area of low pressure located near 21.5N112.5W will move N-NE 
with heavy rainfall across portions of Baja California Sur, 
southern Sonora, and northern Sinaloa through Mon. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is within 150 nm either
side of a line from 25N109W to 22N112W. A remnant area of seas 
of 8-9 ft in S-SW swell from earlier stronger winds will decay 
into early Mon.

Gulf of Tehunatepec: A plume of fresh to strong northerly winds
will persist through Tue supporting by high pressure ridging to
the N across eastern Mexico, and lower pressures to the SE-S
associated with the monsoon trough. Seas will be up to 8 to 10 
ft. Low pressure may develop to the SE of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, potentially moving through the Mexico offshore 
waters from the SE during the week with increasing winds and 
seas.

Otherwise, weak ridging will build through the week across the 
Baja California offshore waters, in the wake of the low pressure
mentioned above. A set of large NW swell will propagate into the
Baja California Norte offshore waters by the end of the week,
with seas building to up to 8-12 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will lift N early this week, with
increasing winds and seas across the offshore waters from
northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. Low pressure is forecast to 
develop along the monsoon trough with the potential of tropical 
cyclone formation by midweek. Expect increasing winds and seas
across the offshore waters from western Costa Rica to Guatemala
in association with this low and monsoon trough. Abundant 
moisture will persist over Central America early this week, with 
the potential of locally heavy rain over the coastal waters and 
the westward side of the mountains. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A dissipating cold front in the NW part of the forecast area 
extends from 30N139W to 23N140W. The front is forecast to move 
SE through tonight while gradually dissipating. S of the front, a
weak and broad ridge supports mainly moderate trades and seas of
4 to 7 ft.

A stronger cold front will approach to near 30N140W by mid week, 
followed by a set of long period NW swell. Seas of 8 to 9 ft will
propagate across the waters N of 28N W of 130W by Thu morning. 
This swell will continue propagating SE-S through the end of the 
week with seas of 8 ft or greater likely covering the waters N of
10N and W of 110W by Fri night.

$$
Lewitsky