000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132039
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Oct 13 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles SW of 
the southern tip of Baja California remains broad and elongated, 
with the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is within 420 nm in the NE quadrant
of the low including over Baja California Sur, the central and
southern Gulf of California, and mainland Mexico. This convection
has the potential to produce heavy rainfall. Regardless of any 
tropical development, expect higher winds and seas in the Baja 
California Sur offshore waters and central and southern Gulf of 
California in thunderstorms through early this week. See latest 
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W/97W, from 04N to 15N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted within 15N99W to 15N94W to 08N90W to 08N96W
to 15N99W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N
between 92W and 98W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W, from 06N to 18N, moving
W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 104W and 109W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica to the coast near
10N86W to 12N100W to 17N106W, then resumes near 15N116W to
12N130W to low pressure near 12N136W to 11N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is N of the equator and E
of 85W to the Pacific coast of Colombia, and elsewhere from 06N
to 11N between the coast of Costa Rica and 90W. Similar
convection is within 90 nm in the E quadrant of the low. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 14N between 114W and
123W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please read the Special Features section for more details about 
an area of 1007 mb low pressure near 21N113W. 

Gulf of Tehunatepec: Northerly winds have diminished below gale
force this afternoon, however, a plume of fresh to near gale
force winds will likely persist through the early part of the
week. Seas will be up to 8 to 10 ft. Low pressure may develop to
the SE of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, potentially moving through 
the Mexico offshore waters from the SE during the week with 
increasing winds and seas.

Otherwise, weak ridging will build through the week across the 
Baja California offshore waters, in the wake of the low pressure
mentioned above. A set of large NW swell will propagate into the
Baja California Norte offshore waters by the end of the week,
with seas building to up to 8-12 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will lift N early this week, with
increasing winds and seas across the offshore waters from
northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. Low pressure is forecast to 
develop along the monsoon trough with the potential of tropical 
cyclone formation by midweek. Expect increasing winds and seas
across the offshore waters from western Costa Rica to Guatemala
in association with this low and monsoon trough. Abundant 
moisture will persist over Central America early this week, with 
the potential of locally heavy rain over the coastal waters and 
the westward side of the mountains. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about 
a broad area of low pressure located near 21N113W. 

A cold front has entered the NW part of the forecast area and
extends from 30N130W to 26N140W. The front is forecast to move 
SE through tonight while gradually dissipating. S of the front, a
weak and broad ridge supports mainly moderate trades and seas of
4 to 7 ft.

A stronger cold front will approach to near 30N140W by mid week, 
followed by a set of long period NW swell. Seas of 8 to 9 ft will
propagate across the waters N of 28N W of 130W by Thu morning. 
This swell will continue propagating SE-S through the end of the 
week with seas of 8 ft or greater likely covering the waters N of
10N and W of 110W by Fri night.

$$
Lewitsky