000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130830 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0830 UTC Sun Oct 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Broad and elongated low pres near 20N113.5W, or a few hundred nautical miles SW of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, will move generally northward around 5-10 kt during the next few days with the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 20N to 23N between 110W and 115W. An area of fresh to strong SW winds is noted in earlier scatterometer data just S of the monsoon trough, roughly from 14N to 19N between 112W and 118W, along with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Regardless of any tropical development, expect increasing winds and seas to the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands and Baja California Sur offshore waters through early next week. See latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Tehunatepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure behind a front in the western Gulf of Mexico will support gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning. Then, strong to near gale force northerly winds are forecast to persist through Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on the gale warning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W, N of 05N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 87W and 92W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W, N of 06N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 101W and 106W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 138W from 02N to 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is observed. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N90W to low pres near 20N113.5W to 12N125W to low pres near 12N133W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 95W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 109W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and for an area of low pressure near 20N113.5W which has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Elsewhere, a ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will prevail N of Cabo San Lazaro through the remainder of the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will linger between 09N-11N for the next couple of days, with mainly moderate to fresh southerly flow S of it, and light to gentle W-NW winds N of it. Seas will be 4 to 6 ft, mainly in southerly swell. The monsoon trough will lift N early next week with increasing winds and seas across the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala, with low pres possibly developing along it. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about a broad area of low pressure near 20N113W which has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. A ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting mainly moderate to fresh trade winds N of the monsoon trough. A set of long period NW swell will propagate SE of 30N140W by the middle of next week. $$ AL