000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130200 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Oct 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Broad and elongated low pres near 20N113W, or several hundred nautical miles SW of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, will move generally northward around 5-10 kt during the next few days with the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm NW of a line from 23N107W to 18N115W. An area of fresh to strong SW winds is noted in earlier scatterometer data just S of the monsoon trough, roughly from 11N to 24N between 110W and 121W, along with seas of 8 to 12 ft. Regardless of any tropical development, expect increasing winds and seas to the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands and Baja California Sur offshore waters through early next week. See latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Tehunatepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure behind a front in the western Gulf of Mexico is supporting gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into Sun morning. Seas during this gale force gap wind event will build to up to 8 to 13 ft. Then, strong to near minimal gale force northerly winds are forecast to persist through Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on the gale warning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W/93W, N of 05N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 91W and 97W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W/103W, N of 06N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 101W and 107W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 137/138W from 02N to 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is observed. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N77W to low pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea near 09.5N81.5W to 10N95W to low pressure near 20N113W to 12N125W to 12N133W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 07N to 12N between 77W and 90W, from 14N to 18N between 106W and 111W, and also within 180 nm SE-S of the monsoon trough between 116W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and for an area of low pressure near 20N113W which has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Gulf of California: Light and variable winds will become southerly by early Sun and increase to gentle to moderate, then will become light and variable Mon through Mon night. Flow will become gentle to moderate out of the NW-N for the remainder of the week. Seas will be mainly 3 ft or less, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance. Elsewhere, a ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas of 4 to 6 ft will prevail N of Cabo San Lazaro through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will linger between 09N-11N for the next couple of days, with mainly moderate to fresh southerly flow S of it, and light to gentle W-NW winds N of it. Seas will be 4 to 6 ft, mainly in southerly swell. The monsoon trough will lift N early next week with increasing winds and seas across the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala, with low pres possibly developing along it. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about a broad area of low pressure near 20N113W which has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. A ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting mainly moderate to fresh trade winds N of the monsoon trough. A stationary front analyzed between 30N and 32N will move southward as a cold front tonight, gradually stalling and dissipating into early next week with little impact. Weak 1007 mb low pressure is near 12N133W with scattered moderate convection within 150 nm in the NW quadrant. An earlier altimeter pass showed seas of 6-8 ft NW of the low center. This low is forecast to linger the next couple of days before dissipating. A set of long period NW swell behind another cold front will propagate SE of 30N140W by the middle of next week. $$ Lewitsky