000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120217 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Oct 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Broad and elongated low pres near 14N116.5W at 1006 mb, or several hundred nm SSW of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, will move generally NW around 5-10 kt during the next few days with the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm either side of a line from 20N107W to 14N120W. An area of fresh to strong SW winds is noted per earlier scatterometer data just S of the monsoon trough, roughly from 10N to 15N between 110W and 120W. Regardless of any tropical development, expect increasing winds and seas to the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands and Baja California Sur offshore waters through early next week. See latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Tehunatepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure behind a cold front in the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend is forecast to induce gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night into early Sun. Seas during this gale force gap wind event will build to up to 8-12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on the gale warning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W, N of 02N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted roughly from 06N to 11N between 88W and 95W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W, N of 04N to southern Mexico, moving W at 10-15 kt. An area of 1007 mb low pressure has formed along the wave axis near 12N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 99W and 107W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 134W/135W from 03N to 17N, moving W at 5-10 kt. No significant convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from western Costa Rica near 10N86W to low pressure near 12N98.5W to low pressure near 14N116.5W to 11N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N to the E of 86W, and also from 10N to 16N between 109W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 124W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and for an area of low pressure near 14N116.5W which has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Gulf of California: Northerly flow in the Gulf of California has diminished to moderate to fresh. Winds will gradually become light and variable through the weekend with subsiding seas. Elsewhere, a ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in northerly swell affecting the waters N of Punta Eugenia will subside to 4 to 6 ft by later tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will linger between 09N to 11N for the next few days, with mainly moderate to fresh southerly flow S of it, and light to gentle W-NW winds N of it. Seas will be 4 to 6 ft, mainly in southerly swell. The monsoon trough will lift N early next week with increasing winds and seas across the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about a broad area of low pressure near 14N116.5W which has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. A ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is supporting mainly moderate to fresh trade winds N of it. Northerly swell that has been propagating into the NW and N central waters has decayed to below 8 ft. Looking ahead, a set of large NW swell behind a decaying cold front will propagate SE of 30N140W by the middle of next week. $$ Lewitsky