000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112103 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Oct 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Broad low pres near 14N115W at 1007 mb, S-SW of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula will move generally NW around 5-10 kt with the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 21N109W to 17N105W to 15N113W to 11N112W to 11N117W to 15N123W to 21N109W. An area of fresh to strong SW winds is noted per scatterometer data just S of the monsoon trough from 09N to 14N between 108W and 120W, with seas likely in the 8 to 10 ft range. Regardless of any tropical development, expect increasing winds and seas to the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands and Baja California Sur offshore waters through early next week. See latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Tehunatepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure behind a cold front in the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend is forecast to induce gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night into early Sun. Seas during this gale force gap wind event will build to up to 8-12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on the gale warning. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W/88W, N of 03N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 84W and 91W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W N of 05N to across the Gulf of Papagayo, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 98W and 104W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 133W from 03N to 17N, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near the Colombia/Panama border near 08N78W to 12N96W to 16N110W to low pressure near 14N115W to 12N125W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is N of 03N to the E of 84W, from 10N to 15N between 106W and 112W, and also from 09N to 12N between 120W and 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and for an area of low pressure near 14N115W which has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Gulf of California: A tight pres gradient will support fresh to near gale force northerly winds in the northern and central Gulf of California through this evening before diminishing. Elsewhere, a ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in northerly swell affecting the waters N of Punta Eugenia will subside to 4 to 6 ft by tonight. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will linger between 09N to 11N for the next few days, with mainly moderate to fresh southerly flow S of it, and light to gentle W-NW winds N of it. Seas will be 4 to 6 ft, mainly in southerly swell. The monsoon trough will lift N early next week with increasing winds and seas across the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about a broad area of low pressure near 14N115W which has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. A ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is supporting mainly moderate to fresh trade winds N of it. Northerly swell is propagating into the N central waters with seas up to 8 ft mainly N of 23N between 122W and 132W. Seas are also up to 8 ft from 13N to 23N to the W of 135W where trades are the strongest. Seas are forecast to subside below 8 ft on Sat. Looking ahead, a set of large NW swell behind a decaying cold front will propagate SE of 30N140W by the middle of next week. $$ Lewitsky