000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110837 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0830 UTC Fri Oct 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over the U.S. Great Basin region and a surface trough across the Gulf of California is supporting winds to minimal gale force over the northern Gulf of California. Seas are 7-9 ft range. Winds will diminish below gale force this afternoon, and to 20 kt or less this evening as the area of high pressure weakens and the pressure gradient loosens. Gulf of Tehunatepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure behind a cold front in the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend is forecast to induce gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night. Seas during this gale force gap wind event will build to up to 8-11 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details on both gale warnings. A broad and elongated area of low pressure centered near 13N109.5W is supporting disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development into a tropical cyclone over the weekend while the low moves NW. Regardless, increasing winds and seas in the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands and Baja California Sur offshore waters will be possible. See latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W, N of 03N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the coast of Central America between 82W and 91W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W N of 04N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted. The axis of a tropical wave is near 132W from 03N to 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 15N104W to 11N128W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 09N to 12N between 98W and 102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 11N to 19N between 103W and 112W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 10N to 13N between 113W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about gale warnings in the northern Gulf of California and in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and for an area of low pressure which has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Elsewhere, a ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Northerly swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte through early today. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will linger between 09N-11N for the next few days, with mainly moderate to fresh southerly flow S of it, and light to gentle winds N of it. Seas will be 4 to 7 ft, mainly in southerly swell. The monsoon trough will lift N early next week with increasing winds and seas offshore of Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about a broad area of low pressure which has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. A ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the monsoon trough is supporting mainly moderate to fresh trade winds N of it. Northerly swell is propagating into the N central waters with seas up to 8-10 ft. This swell along with slightly increasing trades to moderate to fresh will support mixed swell spreading SW to the W central waters by this evening. Seas are forecast to subside below 8 ft by early next week. $$ AL