000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110155 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Oct 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: A very tight pressure gradient across the U.S. Great Basin region supporting fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf of California will increase to minimal gale force later tonight before gradually diminishing below gale force Fri morning. Seas will build to 7-9 ft in the northern Gulf during the peak winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. A broad and elongated area of low pressure supporting disorganized cloudiness and showers is centered near 13N109W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development into a tropical cyclone over the weekend while the low moves WNW. Regardless, increasing winds and seas in the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands and Baja California Sur offshore waters will be possible. See latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is N of 03N to near the Panama/Costa Rica border along 84W/85w, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the coast of Central America E of 89W. A tropical wave is N of 05N along 92W to near the Guatemala/ Mexico border moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is N of 13N between the wave axis and 95W. A tropical wave is from 02N to 18N with axis along 131W/132W, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 14N104W to 11N120W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 10N to 12N between 97W and 103W, and also within 19N111W to 16N104W to 13N104W to 10N115W to 12N127W to 16N129W to 15N120W to 19N111W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 123W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about a gale warning in the northern Gulf of California, and for an area of low pressure which has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Gulf of Tehunatepec: Strong high pressure behind a cold front in the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend may induce gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night. Elsewhere, a ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Northerly swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte through early Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will linger between 09N-11N for the next few days, with mainly moderate to fresh southerly flow S of it, and light to gentle winds N of it. Seas will be 4 to 7 ft, mainly in southerly swell. The monsoon trough will lift N early next week with increasing winds and seas offshore of Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about a broad area of low pressure which has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. A moderate ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. The gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is supporting mainly moderate to fresh trade winds N of it. Northerly swell is propagating into the N central waters with seas up to 8-10 ft. This swell along with slightly increasing trades to moderate to fresh will support mixed swell spreading SW to the W central waters by Fri evening. Similar conditions are expected into the weekend, with conditions improving by early next week. $$ Lewitsky