000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102123 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Oct 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: A very tight pressure gradient is across the U.S. Great Basin region. Fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf of California will increase to minimal gale force tonight before gradually diminishing below gale force Fri morning. Seas will build to 7-9 ft in the northern Gulf during the peak winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. A broad and elongated area of low pressure supporting disorganized cloudiness and showers is centered near 13N109W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 20N107W to 15N100W to 10N107W to 10N114W to 15N117W to 20N107W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development into a tropical cyclone over the weekend while the low moves WNW. Regardless, increasing winds and seas in the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands and Baja California Sur offshore waters will be possible. See latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is N of 03N to near the Panama/Costa Rica border along 83W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is N of 03N to the E of the wave axis to 80W. A tropical wave is N of 05N along 91W to across central Guatemala, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 08N to 11N between 86W and 91W. A tropical wave is from 02N to 18N with axis along 130W, moving W at 5-10 kt. No significant convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the central coast of Nicaragua near 12N87W to 14N100W to low pressure near 13N109W to 11N117W to 12N124W to 08N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 93W and 103W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 15N128W to 15N121W to 09N114W to 06N124W to 08N127W to 12N121W to 12N128W to 15N128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about a gale warning in the northern Gulf of California, and for an area of low pressure which has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Gulf of Tehunatepec: Strong high pressure behind a cold front in the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend may induce gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night. Elsewhere, a ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Northerly swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte through early Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will linger between 09N-11N for the next few days, with mainly moderate to fresh southerly flow S of it, and light to gentle winds N of it. Seas will be 4 to 7 ft, mainly in southerly swell. The monsoon trough will lift N early next week with increasing winds and seas offshore of Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A moderate ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. The gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is supporting mainly moderate to fresh trade winds N of it. Northerly swell is propagating into the N central waters with seas up to 8-10 ft. This swell along with slightly increasing trades to moderate to fresh will support mixed swell within 16N140W to 23N140W to 30N131W to 27N125W to 16N140W by Fri afternoon. Similar conditions are expected into the weekend, with conditions improving by early next week. $$ Lewitsky