000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Oct 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: A very tight pressure gradient will develop across the U.S. Great Basin region today. Fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf of California will increase to near gale force this afternoon and to minimal gale force tonight before gradually diminishing below gale force Fri morning. Seas will build to 7-9 ft in the northern Gulf during the peak winds. A broad area of low pressure supporting disorganized cloudiness and showers is centered near 12N108W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while the system moves west-northwest. See latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is south of Panama along 81W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted near the wave axis from 02N to 07N E of 83W. A tropical wave is N of 05N along 89W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-10N between 83W and 89W. A tropical wave is from 04N to 18N with axis along 129W, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is east of the wave axis from 07N to 15N between 120W and 128W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N97W to low pressure near 12N108W to 11N124W to 09N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 92W and 102W, and from 07N to 15N between 114W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about a gale warning in the northern Gulf of California. A broad 1007 mb low pressure is centered near 12N108W with a large area of scattered deep convection from 08N to 17N between 100W and 120W. Model guidance indicates this low is likely to develop by this weekend, and may bring increased winds and seas to the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands and Baja California Sur offshore waters. Gulf of Tehunatepec: Strong high pressure will build behind a cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend, supporting possible gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Sat night. Elsewhere, a ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Northerly swell from a dying cold front will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte through early Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will linger between 10N-12N for the next few days, with mainly moderate to fresh southerly flow S of it, and light to gentle winds N of it. Seas will be 4 to 7 ft, mainly in southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A moderate ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. The gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is supporting mainly moderate to fresh trade winds N of it. Northerly swell will propagate into the waters N of 27N between 122W-132W through Fri afternoon, with seas building to 8-9 ft. $$ Ramos