000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100850
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Oct 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: A very tight pressure gradient 
will develop across the U.S. Great Basin region today. Winds in 
the northern Gulf of California will increase this morning, and 
are forecast to reach minimal gale force tonight and Fri morning 
before gradually diminishing. Seas will build to 7-9 ft in the 
northern Gulf by early Fri.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is south of Panama along 80W, moving W at 10-15 
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted near 
the wave axis between 77W-81W.

A tropical wave is N of 05N along 88W, moving W at 10-15 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-10N between 86W 
and 88W.

A tropical wave is from 03N to 18N with an axis along 127W, 
moving W at 5-10 kt. Limited associated convection is noted.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 11N86W to low 
pressure near 13N106W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 08N-15N between 93W and 100W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 09N-13N between 106W 
and 117W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please read the Special Features section for more details about 
a gale warning in the northern Gulf of California.

A broad 1011 mb low pressure is centered near 12N106W with a 
large area of deep convection west-southwest of the low center. 
Model guidance indicates this low is likely to develop by this 
weekend, and may bring increased winds and seas to the vicinity 
of the Revillagigedo Islands.

Gulf of Tehunatepec: Winds and seas will diminish today as the 
pressure gradient relaxes. Looking ahead, strong high pressure 
will build behind a cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico 
this weekend, supporting possible gale force northerly winds in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Sat night.

Elsewhere, a ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters 
west of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate NW to N 
winds. Northerly swell from a dying cold front will propagate 
into the waters off Baja California Norte through early Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will linger between 10N-12N for the next few 
days, with mainly moderate to fresh southerly flow S of it, and 
light to gentle winds N of it. Seas will be 4 to 7 ft, mainly in 
southerly swell. 

Winds may increase to fresh to strong W of Colombia and S of 
Costa Rica this weekend, and help build seas to 6-8 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A moderate ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. The 
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity 
of the monsoon trough is supporting mainly moderate to fresh 
trade winds.

Northerly swell will propagate into the waters N of 26N between 
120W-135W through Fri, with seas building to 8-10 ft. A decaying 
frontal boundary will drift into northern waters this weekend.

$$
Mundell