000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091550 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Oct 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is N of 04N with an axis along 84W, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 83W and 91W. A tropical wave is from 04N to 17N with an axis along 127W, moving W around 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 125W and 131W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N100W to 13N110W to 10N117W to 08N127W to 08N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection from 13N to 19N between 96W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection from 07N to 13N between 93W and 106W, from 08N to 16N between 110W and 123W, and from 05N to 12N W of 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Developing high pres over the U.S. Great Basin will induce strong to near gale force NW-N winds across the northern Gulf of California Thu and Fri. Model guidance is trending towards the possibility of minimal gale force winds, which will be closely monitored in case a gale warning becomes necessary. Seas are forecast to build to 7 to 8 ft across the northern Gulf by early Fri. Gulf of Tehunatepec: Weak ridging in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will support fresh to strong northerly winds today, with 7-8 ft seas. A ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California for the next several days, producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Low pres may develop SW of the Revillagigedo Islands early on Sun. If it develops, an area of fresh to near gale force winds and large seas will accompany this low, which is forecast to move north-northeast over the Baja California offshore waters S of Punta Eugenia. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will linger between 10N-12N for the next several days, with mainly moderate to fresh southerly flow S of it, and light to gentle variable winds N of it. Seas will be 4 to 7 ft, mainly in long period southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. The gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds. Northerly swell will propagate into the waters N of 27N between 120W and 135W Thu through Fri, with seas building to 8-10 ft. A decaying frontal boundary may drift into the northern waters this weekend with little impact. Otherwise, little change N of the monsoon trough is expected during the next several days. Otherwise, broad low pres may develop SW of the Revillagigedo Islands early on Sun. If it develops, an area of fresh to near gale force winds and large seas will accompany this low, which is forecast to move north-northeast over the Baja California offshore waters S of Punta Eugenia. $$ Ramos