000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090850 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Oct 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is N of 05N with an axis along 82W, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 81W and 85W. A tropical wave is from 05N to 19N with an axis along 121W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 117W and 122W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 11N102W to 11N122W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 17N between 89W and 103W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 105W and 116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of California: Developing high pres over the U.S. Great Basin will induce strong to near gale force NW-N winds across the northern Gulf of California Thu and Fri. Model guidance is trending towards the possibility of minimal gale force winds, which will be closely monitored in case a gale warning becomes necessary. Seas are forecast to build to 7 to 9 ft across the northern Gulf by early Fri. Gulf of Tehunatepec: Weak ridging in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will support fresh northerly winds today, with 7-8 ft seas. A ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California for the next several days, producing mainly moderate NW-N winds. Northerly swell with seas to 8 ft will propagate to the offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia Thu through Fri. Low pres may develop E of the Revillagigedo Islands later this week. If it develops, an area of fresh to strong winds and large seas will accompany this low, mainly in the SE semicircle with the monsoonal flow. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will linger between 10N-12N for the next several days, with mainly moderate southerly flow S of it, and light variable winds N of it. Seas will be 4 to 7 ft, mainly in long period southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. The gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds. Northerly swell will propagate into the waters N of 25N between 120W and 135W tonight through Fri, with seas building to 8-10 ft. A decaying frontal boundary may drift into the northern waters this weekend with little impact. Otherwise, little change N of the monsoon trough is expected during the next several days. South of the monsoon trough, an area of fresh to strong S to SW winds is between 100W and 112W, supporting 8 to 9 ft seas. Broad low pres may develop in this area later this week, gradually lifting W-NW toward the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands. $$ Mundell