000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082144
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Oct 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is N of 04N to the western Caribbean Sea with
axis along 79W/80W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection was noted N of 04N and E of 82W.

A tropical wave is from 05N to 19N with axis along 120W, moving 
W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
was noted from 13N to 16N between 115W and 121W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08N78W to 11N97W to
13N117W to 10N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection was noted within 17N100W to 09N84W to 05N89W to
05N96W to 09N112W to 13N102W to 17N100W. Similar convection was
noted from 13N to 15N between 110W and 115W, and also from 05N
to 09N between 135W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gulf of California: Developing high pres over the U.S. Great 
Basin will bring strong to near gale force NW-N winds across the 
northern Gulf of California on Thu, reaching the central Gulf of 
California Thu through Fri. Model guidance is trending towards
the possibility of minimal gale force winds which will be
monitored in case a gale warning becomes necessary. Seas are 
forecast to build to 7 to 9 ft across the northern Gulf early on
Fri.

Gulf of Tehunatepec: Weak surface ridging across eastern Gulf of
Mexico will support fresh to strong northerly winds through 
early Wed. Seas will build to 8 to 9 ft as a result.

A ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters W of Baja 
California during the next several days producing mainly moderate
NW-N winds. Northerly swell with seas to 8 ft will propagate to 
the offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia Thu through Fri.

Low pres may develop well E of the Revillagigedo Islands later
this week, possibly moving closer this weekend. At the very
least, an area of fresh to occasionally strong winds, and seas of
8-9 ft may accompany this low, mainly on the SE through SW sides
with monsoonal flow.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will linger between 10N and 12N through the 
next several days, with mainly moderate southerly flow S of it, 
and light and variable winds N of it. Seas will be 4 to 7 ft, 
mainly in long period southerly swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the 
vicinity of the monsoon trough is supporting mainly gentle to 
moderate trade winds. A set of northerly swell will propagate
into the waters N of 25N between 120W and 135W Wed night through
Fri night, building seas to 8 to 10 ft. A weak and decaying 
frontal boundary may drop S into the northern waters this weekend
with little impact. Otherwise, little change N of the monsoon
trough is expected during the next several days.

To the S of the monsoon trough, an area of fresh to strong S to
SW winds is roughly between 100W and 112W, supporting 8 to 9 ft
seas. Broad low pres may attempt to develop in this general area
later this week, gradually lifting W-NW toward the vicinity of
the Revillagigedo Islands.

$$
Lewitsky