000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081601
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Oct 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is from 06N to 18N with axis along 119W, moving 
W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N 
to 16N between 110W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 13N to 17N between 117W and 120W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N97W to 12N110W to 
12N119W to 10N130W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N east of 80W, from 
08N to 11N between 99W and 105W, and from 11N to 18N between 95W 
and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N 
between 81W and 97W, from 13N to 15N between 108W and 120W, 
and from 04N to 08N W of 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters west of Baja 
California during the next several days producing gentle to 
moderate NW to N winds. Northerly swell with seas to 8 ft will 
propagate to the offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia Thu through 
Fri. This swell event will also propagate across the NE waters 
Thu through Fri covering roughly the forecast area N of 26N 
between 120W and 132W.

Gulf of California: Developing high pressure over the Great 
Basin will bring strong NW to N winds across the northern part of
the Gulf of California on Thu, reaching the central Gulf of 
California by Thu evening and prevailing through Fri. Seas are 
forecast to build to 9 ft across the northern Gulf early on Fri.

Gulf of Tehunatepec: Weak surface ridging building behind a cold 
front moving through the Gulf of Mexico will support fresh to 
strong northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec today today 
through Wed. Seas are expected to build to 8 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds will prevail north of 02N while
gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected across the waters 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas of 4-6 ft in 
mixed S and SW swell is expected across the forecast area.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge dominates the waters N of 20N W of 120W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the 
vicinity of the monsoon trough is supporting mainly gentle to 
moderate winds. South of the monsoon trough gentle to moderate S 
to SW winds prevail. Little change is expected during the next 
several days. 

Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds are generating an area of 8 
ft seas just south of the monsoon trough roughly between 100W 
and 112W. These marine conditions will persist through Wed as a 
low pressure gradually develops within the monsoon trough. Seas 
will slowly subside below 8 ft on Fri, however are likely to 
resume on Sat as the low deepens close to the Revillagigedo 
Islands.

$$
NR