000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080921 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 632 UTC Tue Oct 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 118W from 04N to 18N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 110W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Panama and Costa Rica entering the eastern Pacific near 11N86W, then continues to 13N100W to 13N115W to 08N125W to beyond 14N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 90W and 95W, from 10N to 11N between 95W and 100W, and from 13N to 16N between 94W and 97W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between 100W and 112W, and from 05N to 09N between 134W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California during the next several days producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas are forecast to build to 6-8 ft in northerly swell N of Punta Eugenia Thu through Fri. This swell event will also propagate across the NE waters Thu through Fri covering roughly the forecast area N of 26N between 120W and 132W. Gulf of California: Developing high pressure over the Great Basin will bring strong NW to N winds across the northern part of the Gulf of California on Thu, reaching the central Gulf of California by Thu evening. Seas are forecast to build to 9 or 10 ft across the northern Gulf Thu evening. Gulf of Tehunatepec: High pressure building behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico will generate strong to near gale force northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec today today through Wed. Winds are forecast to peak around 30 kt today, with seas building to 9 or 10 ft. Looking ahead, the first gale force gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast by the computer models to occur Sat night into Sun. Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season across the Tehuantepec region occurs in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in late March or early April. Occasionally, gale force events may occur as early as September and as late as May. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds will prevail north of 02N while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas of 5-7 ft in mixed S and SW swell will dominate most of the forecast area through tonight, subsiding to 4-6 ft thereafter. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from 21N137W to 11N139W. The trough will shift W of the area today. A surface ridge dominates the waters N of 18N W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. South of the monsoon trough gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail. Little change is expected during the next several days. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds are generating an area of 8 ft seas just south of the monsoon trough roughly between 95W and 112W. These marine conditions will persist through Wed. Seas will slowly subside below 8 ft thereafter. $$ GR