000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080231
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
028 UTC Tue Oct 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 118W from 04N to 18N, moving
W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 12N
to 16N between 110W and 121W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N115W to 08N125W to 
beyond 14N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
was noted N of 07N between 86W and 95W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 09N between 
100W and 111W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 10N 
to 14N between 137W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters west of Baja 
California during the next several days producing gentle to 
moderate NW to N winds. Developing high pressure over the Great 
Basin will bring strong NW to N winds across the northern part of
the Gulf of California on Thu, reaching the central Gulf of 
California Thu night. High pressure building behind a cold front 
moving through the Gulf of Mexico will generate strong to near 
gale force northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec later 
today through Wed. Winds and seas are expected to peak on Tue. 

Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season across
the Tehuantepec region occurs in mid-October, with the final
gale-force event occurring in late March or early April.
Occasionally, gale force events may occur as early as September
and as late as May. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds will prevail north of 02N while
gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected across the waters 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas of 5-7 ft in 
mixed S and SW swell will dominate most of the forecast area 
through late Tue, subsiding to 4-6 ft thereafter.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from 20N137W to 11N138W. The trough 
will shift W of the area on Tue. A surface ridge dominates the 
waters N of 18N W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge to the monsoon trough is supporting mainly gentle to 
moderate winds. South of the monsoon trough gentle to moderate S 
to SW winds prevail. Little change is expected during the next 
several days. A area of 8 ft seas will persist just south of the 
monsoon trough roughly between 95W and 114W through Wed. Seas 
will slowly subside below 8 ft thereafter.

$$
AL