000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072045 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2040 UTC Mon Oct 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 117W from 04N to 18N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 11N to 16N between 114W and 121W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N96W to 13N115W to 08N125W to beyond 14N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 03N to 08N between 78W and 85W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 15N between 88W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 05N to 09N between 122W and 132W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 08N to 14N between 134W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California during the next several days producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Developing high pressure over the Great Basin will bring strong NW to N winds across the northern part of the Gulf of California on Thu, reaching the central Gulf of California Thu night. High pressure building behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico will generate strong to near gale force northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec later today through Wed. Winds and seas are expected to peak on Tue. Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season across the Tehuantepec region occurs in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in late March or early April. Occasionally, gale force events may occur as early as September and as late as May. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds will prevail north of 02N while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas of 5-7 ft in mixed S and SW swell will dominate most of the forecast area through late Tue, subsiding to 4-6 ft thereafter. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from 20N136W to 11N137W. The trough will shift W of the area on Tue. A surface ridge dominates the waters N of 18N W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge to the monsoon trough is supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. South of the monsoon trough gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail. Little change is expected during the next several days. A area of 8 ft seas will persist just south of the monsoon trough roughly between 95W and 114W through Wed. Seas will slowly subside below 8 ft thereafter. $$ AL