000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071502 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1238 UTC Mon Oct 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 115W from 06N to 18N, moving W around 15 kt. Isolated to scattered showers are on either side of the wave axis, particularly from 11N to 16N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 14N92W to 12N100W to 13N115W to 11N123W to 15N136W to beyond 14N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N between 77W and 85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N to 16N between 88W and 99W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm of the axis between 99W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California during the next several days producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas are forecast to build to 6-8 ft in northerly swell N of Punta Eugenia Thu through Fri. This swell event will also propagate across the NE waters Thu through Fri covering roughly the forecast area N of 26N between 120W and 130W. Gulf of California: High pressure building over the Great Basin will bring strong NW to N winds across the northern part of the Gulf of California Thu evening, with seas building to 7 or 8 ft by Thu night. Fresh to strong NW-N winds are also expected across the central part of the Gulf Thu night and Fri. Gulf of Tehunatepec: High pressure building behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico will generate strong to near gale force northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec later today through Wed. Winds are forecast to peak around 30 kt on Tue, with seas building to 9 or 10 ft. Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season across the Tehuantepec region occurs in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in late March or early April. Occasionally, gale force events may occur as early as September and as late as May. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds will prevail north of 02N while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas of 5-7 ft in mixed S and SW swell will dominate most of the forecast area through late Tue, subsiding to 4-6 ft thereafter. No significant long- period swell event is expected to impact the waters through the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Scatterometer imagery indicates the weak low pressure system previously located near 20N133W has opened up into a trough that currently extends from 21N135W to a weak 1011 mb low pressure near 15N136W. The surface trough will shift W of the area on Tue. At the same time, another weak low will develop along the monsoon trough near 13N114W. This new system will move westward through Thu while also weakening. An area of moderate NE-E winds is noted over the NW corner from 28N to 30N between 138W and 140W, with seas to 9 ft in NW swell. Elsewhere, a surface ridge dominates the waters N of 18N W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge to the monsoon trough is supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. South of the monsoon trough gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail. Little change is expected during the next several days. A area of 8 ft seas will persist just south of the monsoon trough roughly between 99W and 114W through Wed. Seas will slowly subside below 8 ft thereafter. Near equatorial SW swell is presently S of 03S between 97W and 108W. Swell will subside to less than 8 ft this evening. $$ Formosa