000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070212
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0049 UTC Mon Oct 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 114W from 06N to 18N, moving
W around 15 kt. No significant deep convection is associated 
with this tropical wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 14N112W to beyond
14N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
located from 05N to 13N east of 92W. Scattered moderate 
convection is located from 07N to 10N between 100W to 110W as 
well as 06N to 10N between 124W to 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters west of Baja 
California during the next several days producing gentle to 
moderate NW to N winds. High pressure forming over the Great 
Basin will bring strong NW to N winds across the northern part of
the Gulf of California on Thu and reaching the central Gulf of 
California Thu night. High pressure building behind a cold front 
moving through the Gulf of Mexico will generate strong to near 
gale N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon through Wed 
morning. No tropical cyclone activity is expected in the region 
for at least the next several days. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds will prevail from 02N to the 
monsoon trough near 11N. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will 
prevail over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands. A SE to S long-period swell is contributing toward 
combined seas up to 9 ft in the equatorial zones. These large 
swell reached farther north than assessed earlier, based upon 
1945 and 2125 UTC altimeter passes showing 8 ft seas extending 
up to around 01N. These high seas should gradually diminish 
tomorrow, with no new long-period swell reaching these waters 
through at least Fri night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak low pressure system continues over the western waters at 
20N133W. Scattered moderate convection has redeveloped over the
last several hours within 120 nm in the NE semicircle. Despite
this, environmental conditions are not anticipated to be
conducive and the low is expected to weaken to a trough by Tue. 
The low has seas to 8 ft, which should diminish by Mon. No 
tropical cyclone activity is expected for at least the next 
several days.

Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends southeastward from 30N128W to
18N108W. The pressure gradient between the ridge to the monsoon 
trough is supporting mainly gentle to moderate tradewinds. South 
of the monsoon trough gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail. 
Little change is expected during the next several days. Cross 
equatorial long-period SE swell continues to propagate across the
southern waters, with seas to 8 ft east of 110W. Seas will 
subside below 8 ft by Mon. 

A new long-period N swell event of 8 to 10 ft is expected to
reach our northern border west of Baja California Wed night and
persist through Fri.

$$
Landsea