000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061440 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1440 UTC Sun Oct 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 109W from 04N to 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 15N between 107W and 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 13N96W to 13.5N110W to 09N120W to low pres near 18.5N131W to low pres near 14.5N136W to 14N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted N of 05N E of 83W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 09N to 16N between 87W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 08N to 10N between 115W and 122W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 09N to 13N between 127W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California during the next several days producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas are forecast to build to 6-8 ft N of Punta Eugenia Wed night into Thu. High pressure building over the Great Basin will bring strong NW to N winds across the northern part of the Gulf of California late on Thu with seas building to 7 or 8 ft by Thu night. High pressure building behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico will generate strong to near gale N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds will prevail north of 02N. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas of 5-7 ft in mixed S and SW swell will dominate most of the forecast area through Tue, subsiding to 4-6 ft thereafter. No significant long- period swell event is expected to impact the waters through the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Two low pressure systems remain over the western waters along the monsoon trough, with centers near 18.5N131W and 14.5N136W. Convection associated to each low had decreased. The lows are forecast to weaken, with a remnant surface trough expected by tomorrow. The surface trough will shift W of the area Tue. Elsewhere, a surface ridge dominates the waters N of 18N W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge to the monsoon trough is supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. South of the monsoon trough gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail. Little change is expected during the next several days. Cross equatorial SW swell continues to propagate across the southern waters, with seas 8 ft or greater between 93W and 120W. A morning altimeter pass indicates 8 ft seas reaching as far north as 08N. Seas will slowly subside below 8 ft by midweek. $$ AL