000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060925 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 610 UTC Sun Oct 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W from 05N to 17N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 10N between 104W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 09N82W to 14N95W to 13N110W to 09N120W to 1008 mb low pressure near 18N130.5W to 1009 mb low pres near 15N135W to beyond 14N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 10N between 87W and 90W, and from 10N to 12N between 130W and 135W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 10N between 104W and 110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the Gulf of Tehuantepec N of 14N between 93W and 96W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California during the next several days producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range through at least Wed. Seas are forecast to build to 6-8 ft N of Punta Eugenia Wed night into Thu as a weak cold front reaches the NE part of the forecast region. A strong high pressure over the Great Basin is expected to bring strong NW to N winds across the northern part of the Gulf of California late on Thu with seas building to 7 or 8 ft by Thu night. Expect also increasing winds and building seas across the Gulf of Tehunatepec Mon night into Tue as a ridge builds across the western Gulf of Mexico and the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. Currently, marine guidance suggests strong to near gale force winds with building seas of up to 9 ft by Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate W to NW winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough while mainly moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough forecast to remain near 10N over the next 48-72 hours. Seas of 5-7 ft in mixed S and SW swell will dominate most of the forecast area through Tue, subsiding to 4-6 ft thereafter. No significant long-period swell event is expected to impact the waters through the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Two low pressure systems remain over the west-central waters along the monsoon trough with centers near 18N130.5W and 15N135W. Recent scatterometer data indicate NE-E winds of 20-25 kt within about 150 nm N semicircle of the first low. A pretty well defined convective band previously noted in association with the first low has weakened and only a small burst of convection is seen near the center. Scattered moderate convection is noted within about 60 nm SW semicircle of the second low. Both lows have had a history in the last couple of days of pulsing in their deep convection for a several hours before waning again. These two lows are forecast to merge early this week. The probability of tropical cyclone formation of these disturbances is low for the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, a surface ridge dominates the waters N of 18N W of 110W. The pressure gradient south of the ridge to the monsoon trough is supporting generally gentle to moderate NE to E tradewinds. South of the monsoon trough S to SW winds are gentle to moderate. Little change is expected during the next several days. South of the equator between 92W and 120W some SW swell is contributing toward combined seas of 8 ft. These will subside by Monday. $$ GR