000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060202 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 110 UTC Sun Oct 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 105W from 04N-17N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 11N-13N between 105W-107W as well as 06N-08N between 100W-104W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 14N108W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 18N130W to 1009 mb low pres near 15N136W to beyond 14N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection was noted north of 07N and east of 90W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 10N-13N between 125W-133W, within 120 nm of the center of the low at 18N130W, and from 14N-16N west of 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge west of Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate NW to N winds through at least Thu night. Winds and seas should be quiescent over the Gulf of California until Thu, when developing low pressure over the SW United States may force strong NW to N winds funneling across the northern part of the Gulf. High pressure building behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico will generate strong to near gale N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night through Wed morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds will prevail north of 02N to the monsoon trough near 11N. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. No significant long-period swell will affect the waters through at least Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Two lows are currently present near 18N130W and 15N136W along the monsoon trough. Scatterometer winds earlier this afternoon missed the center of the first low, but did suggest peak winds of 40 kt in the N semicircle. However, these appear to be either artificially rain-inflated or due to edge-of-the-swath problems in the winds. Thus we will continue to advertise peak winds of 25 kt with this system. The other low to the southwest only showed peak winds of 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm of the center of the low at 17N130W and from 14N-16N west of 134W. Both lows have had a history in the last couple of days of pulsing in their deep convection for a several hours before waning again. The probability of tropical cyclone formation of these disturbances is low for the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends southeastward from 30N122W to 20N110W. The pressure gradient south of the ridge to the monsoon trough is supporting generally gentle to moderate NE to E tradewinds. South of the monsoon trough S to SW winds are gentle to moderate. Little change is expected during the next several days. South of the equator between 95W and 120W some SW swell is contributing toward combined seas of 8 ft. These will subside by Monday. $$ Landsea