000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052158
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2126 UTC Sat Oct 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 105W from 04N-17N, moving W 
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 11N-13N
between 105W-107W as well as 06N-08N between 100W-104W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N105W to a low
pressure near 17N130W to low pres near 14N135W to beyond 13N140W.
Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection was 
noted north of 05N and east of 95W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is observed from 11N-14N between
124W-132W, within 120 nm of the center of the low at 17N130W, and
from 14N-16N west of 134W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A surface ridge west of Baja California will maintain gentle to 
moderate NW to N winds through at least Thu night. Winds and seas
should be quiescent over the Gulf of California until Thu, when 
developing low pressure over the SW United States may force 
strong NW to N winds funneling across the northern part of the 
Gulf. High pressure building behind a cold front moving through 
the Gulf of Mexico will generate strong to near gale N winds over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night through Wed morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW to W winds will prevail north of 02N to 
the monsoon trough near 11N. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds 
will prevail over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands. No significant long-period swell will affect the waters 
through at least Thu night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Two lows are currently present near 17N130W and 14N135W along 
the monsoon trough. Just arriving scatterometer winds missed the
center of the first low, but did suggest peak winds of 40 kt in
the N semicircle. However, these appear to be either artificially
rain-inflated or due to edge-of-the-swath problems in the winds.
Thus we will continue to advertise peak winds of 25 kt with this
system. The other low to the southwest only showed peak winds of
20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
observed within 120 nm of the center of the low at 17N130W and 
from 14N-16N west of 134W. Both lows have had a history in the
last couple of days of pulsing in the deep convection for a
several hours before waning again. The probability of 
tropical cyclone formation of these disturbances is low for the
next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends from 30N125W to 20N110W. The 
pressure gradient south of the ridge to the monsoon trough is 
supporting generally gentle to moderate NE to E tradewinds. South
of the monsoon trough S to SW winds are gentle to moderate. 
Little change is expected during the next several days. South of
the equator between 95W and 120W some SW swell is contributing
toward combined seas of 8 ft. These will subside by Monday.

$$ 
Landsea