071 AXPZ20 KNHC 051440 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1440 UTC Sat Oct 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W from 04N-17N, moving W at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N- 12N between 99W-106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 14N103W to 10N114W to low pres near 17N128.5W to low pres near 14N136W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 03N to 07N E of 81W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 11N between 83W and 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 10N between 90W and 99W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the offshore waters off the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between this surface ridge and a surface trough over the Gulf of California is supporting gentle to moderate winds over the offshore waters off the coast of Baja California. Seas over this area are mainly in the 4-5 ft range, with northerly swell helping for seas in the 5-7 ft range over the far northern waters off the coast of Baja California Norte. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the forecast waters. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the offshore waters off southern and SW Mexico, with seas of 2 ft or less over the Gulf of California. The surface ridge W of Baja California will prevail through the middle of next week, maintaining gentle to moderate NW to N winds off the coast of Baja California through Wed. High pres building behind a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico will generate strong winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail N of 02N. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Little change in winds are expected through the middle of next week. Seas in the 6-7 ft range in SW swell will start to subside early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Low pressure centered near 17N128.5W continues to produce pulses of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong winds are found within 180 nm in the N semicircle. Associated seas in this area are between 7-9 ft. A second area of low pressure centered near 14N136W is also producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The probability of significant development of these disturbances is low. Elsewhere, high pres of 1028 mb prevails N of the area near 39N129W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. The area of high pressure will slowly weaken through the middle of next week. This will diminish winds slightly N of the monsoon trough early next week. Cross equatorial SW swell is propagating across the southern waters, with seas 8 ft or greater between 93W and 120W, and reaching as far north as 08N. Seas associated to this swell will subside slightly this weekend. $$ AL