000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050917
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Oct 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W from 04N-16N, moving W 
at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 05N-12N between 100W-108W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to 07N81W to 11N90W to 
12N104W to 10N115W to low pres near 15N127W to low pres near 
13N135W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is noted within 75 nm of the boundary between 81W 
and 88W, and within 120 nm north of each low pres center.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A weak ridge dominating the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California will continue supporting gentle to moderate NW to N 
winds through early next week. Moderate N winds are expected 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend. A cold front 
entering the Gulf of Mexico will generate strong winds over the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec by Mon through Tue night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds will prevail across 
the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. 
Moderate SW winds will generally prevail south of Panama, along 
the coast of Colombia, and between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure centered near 15N127W continues to produce pulses 
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong winds 
are found within 180 nm in the NW semicircle. Associated seas in 
this area are between 7-9 ft. A second area of low pressure 
centered near 13N135W is also producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Fresh to strong winds are also indicated within 
90 nm in the NW quadrant. Some consolidation of the low centers 
is possible, but the probability of significant development for 
these disturbances is considered low. 

Elsewhere, a surface ridge prevails over northern waters. The 
gradient between this ridge and the monsoon trough is supporting 
an area of moderate to fresh trade winds N of the monsoon trough 
to 27N and W of 130W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted 
elsewhere across the region N of 20N W of 120W. Little change is 
expected through the weekend. Long period southerly swell will 
cross the equator and increase seas up to 8 ft reaching as far 
north as 08N and between 95W and 116W by Sat morning.

$$
Mundell