000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050219 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 219 UTC Sat Oct 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W from 05N-16N, moving W around 15 kt. A 1010 mb weak low is analyzed along the wave axis near 11N100W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N- 12N between 99W-106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to low pres near 11N100W to low pres near 15N127W to low pres near 14N135W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the boundary and within 120 nm of each low pres center. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominating the offshore forecast waters of Baja California will continue supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds through early next week. Moderate N winds are expected over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend. A cold front entering the Gulf of Mexico will generate strong winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Mon through Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds will prevail across the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. Moderate SW winds will generally prevail south of Panama, along the coast of Colombia, and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Low pressure centered near 15N127W continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong winds are found within 150 nm in the NW quadrant of the low. Associated seas in this area are between 7-9 ft. A second area of low pressure centered near 14N135W is also producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong winds are also noted within 120 nm NW quadrant of this low. Significant development of these disturbances is not likely at this time. Elsewhere, a surface ridge prevails over the northern waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough is supporting an area of moderate to fresh trade winds N of the monsoon trough to 27N and W of 130W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted elsewhere across the region N of 20N W of 120W. Little change is expected through the weekend. Long period southerly swell will cross the equator and increase seas up to 8 ft reaching as far north as 08N and between 95W and 116W by Sat morning. $$ ERA