000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042152
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2151 UTC Fri Oct 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W from 05N-16N, moving W 
around 15 kt. A weak low is analyzed along the wave axis near 
12N99W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-16N 
between 95W-106W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to low pres near 12N99W 
to 11N115W to low pres near 15N126W to low pres near 13N134W to 
beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the 
boundary and within 90 nm of each low pres center.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A weak ridge dominating the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California will maintain gentle to moderate NW to N winds through
early next week. Moderate to fresh N winds are expected over the
Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri night. A cold front entering the
Gulf of Mexico will generate strong winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Mon through Tue night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds will prevail across 
the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. 
Moderate SW winds will generally prevail south of Panama, along 
the coast of Colombia, and between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure centered near 15N126W continues to produce 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong winds are
found within 150 nm NW semicircle of the low. Associated seas in
this area are between 8-10 ft. A second area of low pressure 
centered near 13N134W is also producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Fresh to strong winds are noted within 120 nm N 
quadrant of this low. Significant development of these 
disturbances is not likely at this time. 

Elsewhere, a surface ridge prevails over the northern waters. 
The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough is
supporting an area of moderate to fresh trade winds N of the 
monsoon trough to 27N and W of 130W. Moderate to fresh N to NE 
winds are noted elsewhere across the region N of 20N W of 120W. 
Little change is expected through the weekend. Long period 
southerly swell will cross the equator and increase seas to 8 ft
reaching as far north as 08N and between 95W and 116W by Sat 
morning.

$$

ERA