000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041440
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1440 UTC Fri Oct 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W N of 05N, moving W 
around 15 kt. A weak low is analyzed along the wave near 11N98W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N 
to 15N between 96W and 104W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N84W to low pres 
near 11N98W to 10N108W to low pres near 14.5N126W to low pres 
near 13N134W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 05N to 07N E of 82W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 10N between 84W
and 96W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 08N to 10N
between 109W and 117W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted from 11N to 16N between 124W and 135W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A weak ridge dominating the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California will maintain gentle to moderate NW to N winds through
Tue night. Moderate to fresh N winds are expected over the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec through Fri night. A cold front entering the Gulf 
of Mexico will generate strong winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
Mon through Tue night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds will prevail across 
the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. 
Moderate SW winds will generally prevail south of Panama, along 
the coast of Colombia and also between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure centered near 14.5N126W continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong winds are
found within 150 nm NW semicircle of the low. Associated seas 
in this area are 8 to 10 ft. A second area of low pressure 
centered near 13N134W is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Fresh to strong winds are noted within 120 nm N 
quadrant of this low. Significant development of these 
disturbances is not likely. 

Elsewhere, a ridge prevails over the northern waters. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough is 
supporting an area of moderate to fresh trade winds N of the 
monsoon trough to 27N and W of 130W. Moderate to fresh N to NE 
winds are noted elsewhere across the region N of 20N W of 120W. 
Little change is expected through the weekend. Long period 
southerly swell will cross the equator and increase seas to 7-8 
ft reaching as far north as 08N mainly between 95W and 116W by
Sat morning.

$$
AL