000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040835
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Oct 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 97W from 05N to 14N, moving 
W around 15 kt. A weak low is analyzed along the wave near 
10N97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong showers are noted 
from 06N to 14N between 95W and 103W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 12N88W to low pres 
near 10N97W to 11N112W to 14N121W to low pres near 14N125W to 
low pres near 13N133W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection from 07N to 14N between 88W and 94W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 
125W and 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Gentle to moderate NW to N winds will prevail west of Baja 
California through Tue night. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico 
will induce strong northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
Mon night through Tue night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate west winds will prevail across the waters 
from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. Moderate SW winds will 
prevail south of Panama.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A low pressure system centered near 14N125W is triggering strong 
convection west and southwest of a partially exposed low level 
circulation. Scatterometer data shows 25 kt winds within 150 nm 
north of the low center. Associated seas in this area are 8 to 
10 ft. Some development of this disturbance is possible during 
the next few days while the low moves slowly west-northwestward.

Elsewhere, a ridge extends southeastward from 32N133W to near 
the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient between the ridge and 
the monsoon trough is supporting an area of fresh trade winds 
from 14N to 26N W of 125W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are 
noted elsewhere across the region N of 20N W of 120W. Little 
change is expected through the weekend. Lastly, long period 
southerly swell will increase seas to 7-8 ft near the equator 
between 95W and 125W through Sunday night.

$$
Mundell