000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040207 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 031 UTC Fri Oct 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0140 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave extends from 04N97W to low pres 1009 mb near 12.5N97W to 16N97W moving W around 25 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 94W and 99W and from 08N to 13N between 100W and 103W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N72W to 10N77W to 14N88W to low pres 1009 mb near 12.5N97W to 14N102W to 10N114W to low pres 1007 mb near 14N125W to low pres 1007 mb near 14N133W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen N of 07N E of 90W and from 11N to 16N W of 138W. Low pressure measuring 1008 mb is embedded in the monsoon trough near 13.5N125W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 12N to 16N between 124W and 127W. A second low pressure system measuring 1007 mb is embedded in the monsoon trough near 14N133W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within 90 nm either side of a line from 12.5N130W to 14.5N135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominating the offshore forecast waters of Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate NW to N winds through Tue night. A broad and weak area of low pres centered S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 12N95W is forecast to drift slowly westward during the next couple of days. The low will support moderate to fresh N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri night. A cold front entering the Gulf of Mexico could generate strong to near gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon through Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds will prevail across the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala and to the east of a weak cyclonic circulation centered just SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate SW winds will generally prevail south of Panama, along the coast of Colombia and also between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Wave heights are in the 5 to 7 ft range in mixed SW wind swell. A new pulse of mixed S and SW long period swell will move into the regional waters to maintain sea heights in the 5 to 7 foot range through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A well-defined low pressure system, centered near 14N125W is producing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 10N to 14N between 124W and 130W. The latest scatterometer data from this afternoon showed winds within 150 nm in the N semicircle of 20 to 25 kt. A recent burst of convection near the center of this system has probably augmented the winds. Corresponding seas in this area are running between 8 and 10 ft. Gradual development of this disturbance is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next several days while the system moves slowly WNW. Elsewhere, a ridge continues to dominate the northern forecast waters and extends southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough is resulting in an area of fresh to strong NE to E winds covering roughly the waters from 14N to 26N W of 125W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted elsewhere across the region N of 20N W of 120W. Little change is expected in these marine conditions across the waters N of 10N W of 120W through Sat night, then winds will gradually decrease as low pressure moving E from the N central Pacific weakens the ridge to the N. Long period SE and SW swell will cause seas to build to between 8 and 9 ft tonight through Sunday night, then this area of seas will subside to below 8 ft as the swell decay. $$ CAM