000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032142 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1931 UTC Thu Oct 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave extends from 04N95W to low pres 1009 mb near 12N95W to 16N95W moving W at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 90W and 102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to low pres 1009 mb near 12N95W to 17N103W to 11N115W to low pres 1008 mb near 13.5N125W to low pres 1008 mb near 14N134W to beyond 14N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen N of 07N E of 90W and from 11N to 16N W of 138W. Low pressure measuring 1008 mb is embedded in the monsoon trough near 13.5N125W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 10N to 14N between 124W and 130W. A second low pressure system measuring 1008 mb is embedded in the monsoon trough near 14N134W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 12N to 16N between 130W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominating the offshore forecast waters of Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate NW to N winds through Tue night. A broad and weak area of low pres centered S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 12N95W is forecast to drift slowly westward during the next couple of days. The low will support moderate to fresh N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri night. A cold front entering the Gulf of Mexico could generate strong to near gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon through Tue night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds will prevail across the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala and to the east of a weak cyclonic circulation over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate SW winds will generally prevail south of Panama, along the coast of Colombia and also between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Wave heights are in the 5-7 ft range in mixed SW wind swell. A new pulse of mixed S and SW long period swell will move into the regional waters on Sat to raise offshore wave heights by about 1 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A well-defined low pressure system, centered near 13.5N125W is producing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 10N to 14N between 124W and 130W. The latest scatterometer data from early this morning showed winds within 150 in the NW semicircle of 20 to 30 kt. Corresponding seas are running between 9 and 11 ft. Gradual development of this disturbance is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next several days while the system moves slowly WNW. Elsewhere, a ridge continues to dominate the northern forecast waters and extends southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough is resulting in an area of fresh to strong NE to E winds covering roughly the waters from 14N to 22N W of 122W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted elsewhere across the region N of 20N W of 120W. Little change is expected in these marine conditions across the waters N of 10N W of 120W through Sat. Long period SE and SW swell will cause seas to build to between 8 and 9 ft tonight through Sunday night, then this area of seas will subside to below 8 ft as the swell decay. $$ CAM