000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031439
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 UTC Thu Oct 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W N of 04N, moving W at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was 
noted from 05N to 09N between 92W and 95W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11.5N86.5W to low pres near
13.5N95W to 17N104W to low pres near 13.5N125.5W to low pres near
14.5N134W to 14N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 06N to 10N between 83W and 86W, from 06N to 11N 
between 88W and 92W, and from 12N to 16N between 95W and 101W,
from 10N to 16N between 122W and 130W, and from 13N to 16N
between 130W and 137W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A weak ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California during the next several days producing mainly gentle 
to moderate northwest to north winds. A broad and weak cyclonic 
circulation over the Gulf of Tehuantepec extends to 10N, and it 
is forecast to drift westward today then move slowly westward 
over the next couple of days. The cyclonic flow around the low is
expected to briefly usher in moderate to fresh northerly winds 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail across the 
offshore waters N of 08N, from Costa Rica to Guatemala and to 
the east of the weak cyclonic circulation over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Mainly moderate SW winds are noted elsewhere S of 
08N and south of Panama and offshore the coast of Colombian and 
also between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Wave heights are 
in the 5-7 ft range in mixed SW wind swell. A new pulse of 
mixed S and SW long period swell will move into the regional 
waters on Sat to raise offshore wave heights by about 1 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A well-defined low pressure system, located near 13.5N125.5W is 
producing several small clusters of showers and thunderstorms, 
from 10N to 15N between 122W and 130W. Overnight scatterometer 
data showed winds across the NW semicircle of 20 to 30 kt, where 
seas are 9-11 ft. Gradual development of this disturbance is 
possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next 
several days while the system moves slowly westward.

Elsewhere, a ridge continues to dominate the northern forecast 
waters and extends southeastward to near the Revillagigedo
Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon
trough is resulting in an area of fresh to strong NE-E winds 
covering roughly the waters from 14N to 22N W of 122W. Moderate 
to fresh N-NE winds are noted elsewhere across the region N of 
20N W of 120W. Little change is expected in these marine 
conditions across the waters N of 10N W of 120W through Sat.

$$
AL