000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031004 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Oct 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W TO 11N86W TO low pres near 13N97W TO 18N105W TO 16N109W, then resumes near 12.5N112W TO 11N118W TO low pres near 14N125W TO low pres near 14.5N133W TO beyond 14N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 00N to 06N E of 80W, and from 05.5N to 12N between 87W and 95W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A tail of moisture left behind by what was Tropical Storm Narda lingers from just SE of the Revillagigedo Islands, NNE across the entrance of the Gulf of California and continues across NW Mexico. This area of moisture will drift very slowly westward Fri and Fri night, and shift across Baja California Sur and southern portions of the Gulf of California, where scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected. Elsewhere, a weak ridge dominates the offshore waters of Baja California, and extends SE to near 19N113W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over interior Mexico is resulting in gentle to moderate northwest to north winds across the offshore Pacific waters. Wave heights of 4-6 ft prevail across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro, and 4-5 ft elsewhere W of Cabo Corrientes. The ridge will remain in place through the upcoming weekend, with little change in winds expected. A new pulse of northwest swell will move into the waters Sat evening and raise seas to 5-7 ft across the northern portions, with wave heights of 7-8 ft north of 30N. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected across the Gulf of California during the next several days. A broad and weak cyclonic circulation over the Gulf of Tehuantepec extends to 10N, with a weak 1009 mb low center at 13N97W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 11N to 17N between 95W and 100W. This broad and weak cyclonic circulation is expected to meander over the Tehunatepec region Fri and maintain active convection, then drift westward over the next couple of days. The cyclonic flow around the low is expected to briefly usher in moderate to fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. Brief episodes of moderate to fresh northerly winds are again expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri and Sat, with the possibility of these winds increasing to fresh to strong late Sun night into Mon as a ridge builds across the western Gulf of Mexico and the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail across the offshore waters N of 08N, from Costa Rica to Guatemala and to the east of the weak cyclonic circulation over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly moderate SW winds are noted elsewhere S of 08N and south of Panama and offshore the coast of Colombian and also between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Wave heights are in the 5-7 ft range in mixed SW wind swell. Little change is expected in these wind conditions over the next couple of days. A new pulse of mixed S and SW long period swell will move into the regional waters on Sat to raise offshore wave heights by about 1 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A well-defined low pressure system, located near 14N125W or a little more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, is producing several small clusters of showers and thunderstorms, from 10N to 16N between 122W and 130W. Overnight scatterometer data showed winds across the NW semicircle of 20 to 30 kt, where seas are 9-11 ft. Gradual development of this disturbance is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next several days while the system moves slowly westward. Another small area of low pressure, located near 14.5N133.5W or about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, is producing disorganized showers and some thunderstorms. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur during the next day or two while the low meanders in place. Elsewhere, a ridge continues to dominate the northern forecast waters and extends southeastward to near 19N113W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the aforementioned low pressure systems located along the monsoon trough is resulting in an area of fresh to strong NE-E winds covering roughly the waters from 14N to 22N W of 122W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are noted elsewhere across the region N of 20N W of 120W. The ridge will remain in place and the low pressure systems will persist along the monsoon trough through at least Sat. As a result, little change is expected in these marine conditions across the waters N of 10N W of 120W through Sat. $$ Stripling