000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030235 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 035 UTC Thu Oct 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 86W N of 06N moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is ahead of the wave axis from 09N to 11N between 86W and 90W. this wave is helping to induce some convective activity over northern Central America. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 09N78W to 13N86W to 16N106W to 12N115W to 1008 mb low pressure near 14N125W to 1008 mb low pressure near 14.5N134W to beyond the area at 14N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 09N to 11N between 86W and 90W, and from 14N to 16N between 97W and 99.5W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 14N to 15.5N between 125W and 128W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 15.5N between 132W AND 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A tail of moisture left behind by what was Tropical Storm Narda is lingering near the entrance of the Gulf of California. This area of moisture will persist on Fri, extending farther N into the southern part of the Gulf of California, and affecting also the area between Cabo Corriente and Los Cabos where some shower activity is possible. Elsewhere, a weak ridge dominates the offshore waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over the southwestern United States is resulting in gentle to moderate northwest to north winds with wave heights of 5-7 ft range across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. The ridge will remain in place through the upcoming weekend, producing mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds and wave heights of 4-6 ft. A new pulse of northwest swell will move into the waters Sat and raise seas to 5-7 ft across the northern portions, with wave heights of 7-8 ft north of 30N. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected across the Gulf of California during the next several days. A broad and weak cyclonic circulation over the Gulf of Tehuantepec extends to 10N. The most recent scatterometer data confirmed the presence of this cyclonic circulation forecast to meander over the Tehunatepec region over the next couple of days. The cyclonic flow around the low is expected to briefly usher in moderate to fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. Brief episodes of moderate to fresh northerly winds are again expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri and Sat, with the possibility of these winds increasing to fresh to strong late Sun night into Mon as a ridge builds across the western Gulf of Mexico and the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail across the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala and to the east of the weak cyclonic circulation over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly moderate SW winds are noted elsewhere south of Panama and offshore the coast of Colombian and also between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Wave heights are in the 5-7 ft range. Little change is expected in these marine conditions over the next couple of days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A well-defined low pressure system, located near 14N125W or a little more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, is producing several small bands of showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this disturbance is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the next several days while the system moves slowly westward. A small area of low pressure, located near 15N133W or about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, is producing disorganized showers. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur during the next day or two while the low drifts generally westward and interacts with the larger disturbance located to the east. Elsewhere, a ridge continues to dominate the northern forecast waters and extends southeastward to near 20N110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the aforementioned low pressure systems located along the monsoon trough is resulting in an area of fresh to strong NE-E winds covering roughly the waters from 14N to 21N W of 120W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are noted elsewhere across the region N of 20N W of 120W. The ridge will remain in place and the low pressure systems will persist along the monsoon trough through at least Fri. As a result, little change is expected in these marine conditions across the waters N of 10N W of 120W trough at least Fri. $$ GR