000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022127
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2020 UTC Wed Oct 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 
10N74W to 13N85W to 15N100W to 16N107W to 12N115W to 1009 mb low
pressure near 14.5N125W to 1010 mb low pressure near 14.5N134W 
to beyond the area at 14N140W. Scattered moderate convection is N
of 06N between 78W and 81W, including the Gulf of Panama, and
from 13N to 15N between 132W and 137W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is from 10N to 15N between 96W and 
99W. Numerous moderate convection is within about 120 nm W 
semicircle of the low pres near 14.5N125W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A tail of moisture left behind by what was Tropical Storm Narda 
is lingering near the entrance of the Gulf of California. This
area of moisture will persist on Fri, extending farther N into 
the southern part of the Gulf of California, and affecting also
the area between Cabo Corriente and Los Cabos where some shower
activity is possible.  

Elsewhere, a weak ridge dominates the offshore waters of Baja 
California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressures over the southwestern United States is resulting in 
gentle to moderate northwest to north winds with wave heights of 
5-7 ft range across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. The ridge 
will remain in place through the upcoming weekend, producing 
mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds and wave 
heights of 4-6 ft. A new pulse of northwest swell will move into 
the waters Sat and raise seas to 5-7 ft across the northern 
portions, with wave heights of 7-8 ft north of 30N. Mainly light 
to gentle winds are expected across the Gulf of California during
the next several days.

A broad and weak cyclonic circulation over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec extends to 10N. The most recent scatterometer data
confirmed the presence of this cyclonic circulation forecast to
meander over the Tehunatepec region over the next couple of days.
The cyclonic flow around the low is expected to briefly usher in
moderate to fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through Fri. Brief episodes of moderate to fresh northerly winds
are again expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri and Sat, 
with the possibility of these winds increasing to fresh to strong
late Sun night into Mon as a ridge builds across the western Gulf
of Mexico and the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds prevail across the
offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala and to the
east of the weak cyclonic circulation over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Mainly moderate SW winds are noted elsewhere south 
of Panama and offshore the coast of Colombian and also between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Wave heights are in the 5-7 
ft range. Little change is expected in these marine conditions 
over the next couple of days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A low pressure system, located near 14.5N125W or a little more 
than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja 
California peninsula, is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible and
a tropical depression could form during the next several days 
while the system moves slowly westward.

Another weak area of low pressure, located near 14.5N134W or 
about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja 
California peninsula, is producing disorganized showers. Some 
slight development of the system is possible during the next day 
or two while it drifts generally westward.

Elsewhere, a ridge continues to dominate the northern forecast 
waters and extends southeastward to near 20N110W. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and the aforementioned low pressure 
systems located along the monsoon trough is resulting in an area
of fresh to strong NE-E winds covering roughly the waters from 
14N to 21N W of 120W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are noted 
elsewhere across the region N of 20N W of 120W. The ridge will 
remain in place and the low pressure systems will persist along 
the monsoon trough through at least Fri. As a result, little 
change is expected in these marine conditions across the waters N
of 10N W of 120W trough at least Fri.

$$
GR