000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Oct 02 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 11N86W and northwestward to 15N93W to 17N100W to 13N110W to low pressure near 14.5N124W 1009 mb to low pressure near 15N133W 1010 mb and to beyond the area at 14N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 210 nm south of the trough between 94W and 98W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm south of the trough west of 137W, and within 60 nm south of the trough between 122W and 126W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm southwest of the trough between 86W and 90W, and within 60 nm south of the trough between 131W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Mid to upper-level moisture associated with the remnants of Narda will continue to stream north-northeastward, with strong strong southwest winds aloft found ahead of an upper-level trough that stretches from the western U.S. southwestward to near 32N130W and to near 27N140W, to across portions of northwestern Mexico, and into portions of the U.S. Southern Plains for the next couple of days, enhancing rainfall and the threat for flash flooding in those areas. A tail of moisture left behind by what was Tropical Storm Narda is lingering across the south- central portions of the Gulf of California this morning, between Huatabampo and La Paz. Isolated showers are possible with this moisture. Other lingering moisture extends from between Mazatlan and Manzanillo southwestward into the offshore waters and is currently resulting in widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. This area of weather will drift westward through Fri, and across Baja California Sur. Elsewhere, a weak ridge dominates the offshore waters of Baja California and extends southeastward to near 20N117W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over the southwestern United States is resulting in gentle to moderate northwest to north winds with wave heights of 5-7 ft range across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. The ridge will remain in place through the upcoming weekend, producing mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds and wave heights of 4-6 ft. A new pulse of northwest swell will move into the waters Sat and raise seas to 5-7 ft across the northern portions, with wave heights of 7-8 ft north of 30N. Fresh southerly flow across northern portions of the Gulf of California raised wave heights there to 4 ft during the overnight hours. Winds and wave heights there will gradually diminish this morning as winds become light and variable through Thu. A broad and weak cyclonic circulation over the Gulf of Tehuantepec extends to 10N. It will drift south-southeastward through early Thu, then in a general westward direction through Sun while gradually dissipating. Expect for ongoing numerous showers and thunderstorms in this area to continue through at least Thu. The cyclonic flow around the low is expected to briefly usher in moderate to fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec mainly during diurnal hours through Fri. Brief episodes of fresh to moderate northerly winds are again expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri and Sat, with the possibility of these winds increasing to fresh to strong late Sun night into Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate west to southwest winds prevail from Costa Rica to the Tehuantepec region, to the east of the trough across Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh southwest to west winds are noted elsewhere south of Panama and offshore the coast of Colombia. Mainly moderate S to SW winds continue between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Wave heights are presently 5-7 ft across the waters off Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, and to around 8 ft farther offshore of western Panama and Costa Rica. Seas will remain near 8 ft across the offshore waters from Panama to Nicaragua through Wed night before subsiding. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure of 1032 mb located well to the northwest of the forecast area near 43N151W extends a ridge southeastward across the northern forecast waters, mainly north of 18N and west of about 115W. Overnight scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh northeast winds roughly from 16N to 26N W of 120W to beyond 140W. Corresponding altimeter data indicated wave heights of 7-9 ft in this region. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough will result in fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds through Thu as a couple of nearly stationary low pressure systems remain along the monsoon trough between 124W and 135W. A low pressure system located a little more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, near 14.5N124W with pressure of 1009 mb is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward. $$ Aguirre