000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021007 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Oct 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W TO 13N88W TO 16.5N102W TO 12N113W TO low pres near 14.5N123.5W TO 15N133W to beyond 13.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is N of 00N and E of 80W, N of 10N between 93.5W and 98.5W, and from 10N to 16n between 121W and 140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 07.5N between 85W and 90W, from 04.5N to 10N between 92.5W and 99W, and from 09N to 16N between 105W and 111W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moisture associated with the remnants of Narda will continue to stream NNE across portions of NW Mexico, and into portions of the U.S. Southern Plains for the next couple of days, enhancing rainfall and the threat for flash flooding in those areas. A tail of moisture left behind by Narda lingers across south central portions of the Gulf of California this morning, between Huatabampo and La Paz, and will likely lead to daytime showers across this area. Other lingering moisture extends from between Mazatlan and Manzanillo southwestward into the offshore waters and is currently yielding widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. This area of weather will drift slowly westward through Fri, and across Baja California Sur. Elsewhere, a weak ridge dominates the offshore waters of Baja California and extends SE to near 20N117W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over the southwestern United States is resulting in moderate NW-N winds with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas will subside to 5-7 ft later today. The ridge will remain in place through the upcoming weekend, producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds and seas of 4-6 ft. A new pulse of NW swell will move into the waters Sat and raise seas to 5-7 ft across N portions. Fresh southerly flow across northern portions of the Gulf of California has raised seas to 4 ft overnight. Winds and seas will gradually diminish there this morning, becoming light northerly by Thu. A broad and weak cyclonic circulation is developing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec extending southward to around 10N, and is expected to persist across the area through Fri while drifting very slowly westward. This may help to briefly bring in moderate to fresh northerly winds. A cluster of scattered strong convection has developed across this area overnight and is not expected to move much through Thu. The low is forecast to drift southeastward through early on Fri. Looking ahead, fresh northerly winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec next week, starting Mon night and could reach 30 kt Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate west to southwest winds prevail from Costa Rica to the Tehuantepec region, to the east of the trough across Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh southwest to west winds are noted elsewhere south of Panama and offshore the coast of Colombia. Mainly moderate S to SW winds continue between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Wave heights are presently 5-7 ft across the waters off Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, and to around 8 ft farther offshore of western Panama and Costa Rica. Seas will remain near 8 ft across the offshore waters from Panama to Nicaragua through Wed night before subsiding. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure located well northwest of the forecast area near 34N145W extends a ridge southeastward across the northern forecast waters, mainly north of 18N and west of about 115W. Overnight scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh northeast winds roughly from 16N to 26N W of 120W to beyond 140W. Corresponding altimeter data indicated wave heights of 7-9 ft in this region. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough will result in fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds today through Thu as a couple of nearly stationary low pressure systems remain along the monsoon trough between 124W and 135W. A low pressure system located about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, near 14.5N123.5W, has become better organized since yesterday. Further development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward. $$ Stripling