000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020227 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 127 UTC Wed Oct 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 09N80W to 12N90W to 16N103W to 12N115W to 1009 MB low pressure near 15N123.5W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 08N between 83W and 86W, from 08N to 10N between 86W and 90W, from 12N to 14N between 95W and 97W, and from 12N to 16N W of 130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 121W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moisture associated with the remnant low of Narda will continue to impact parts of NW Mexico, and spread northeastward across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains for the next couple of days, enhancing rainfall and the threat for flash flooding in those areas. Elsewhere, a weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over the southwestern United States is resulting in moderate to fresh NW-N winds with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. Seas will subside below 8 ft late tonight. The ridge will remain in place during the next several days producing mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds and seas of 5-7 ft on Wed, subsiding to 4-6 ft thereafter. A weak cyclonic circulation is forecast to develop over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into Wed. This may help to briefly bring in moderate to fresh northerly winds. The low is forecast to drift southeastward through early on Fri. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu through Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate west to northwest winds continue from Costa Rica to the Tehuantepec region, while moderate to fresh southwest to west winds are noted south of Panama and offshore the coast of Colombia. Mainly moderate southerly winds are between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Wave heights are presently 5-7 ft across the waters off Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Recent scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to locally strong southwest monsoonal flow between Central America and the Galapagos Islands, with wave heights of 8 to 10 ft. Seas will build to 8 ft across the offshore waters from Panama to Nicaragua tonight through Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure located well northwest of the forecast area near 34N144W extends a ridge southeastward across the northern forecast waters, mainly north of 20N and west of about 120W. Scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh northeast winds roughly from 19N to 24N between 124W and 130W north of 18N and west of 120W, with corresponding altimeter data indicating wave heights of 7-8 ft in this region. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough will result in fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds on Wed as a couple of nearly stationary low pressure systems remain along the monsoon trough. A low pressure system located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better organized since yesterday. Further development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward. A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed near 15N123.5W on the 0000 UTC surface map. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 121W and 127W. $$ GR